The people who say that Iraq hasn't yet erupted into civil war may be right. It looks to me like they skipped the civil part altogether and jumped right into senseless reciprocal slaughter.

Then there's northern Iraq, a peaceful counterpoint to the madness in the south. One morning we'll read in the New York Times that, overnight, all of our troops were pulled out -- and put into the north.

And that will be it.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan links to Anthony Shadid who describes the situation as "More chaotic than civil war." (Unfortunately, that link goes somewhere else.)