Chinese checkers:
There's no doubt that China is an emerging superpower, especially so in the Pacific. But it's not clear how much of a threat they will be to our interests, despite all the tough talk in Washington.
The Chinese people are feeling a new empowerment as economic conditions are improving. My guess is that the Chinese government is going to be more concerned about maintaining domestic stability as the people demand a better quality of life and more connections to the rest of the world.
It may not look like democracy as we know it, and even though they have been cracking down on bloggers and independent media within the country, other forms of democratizing communication technologies are ubiquitous. Even the street peddlers have cellphones. The genie is out of the bottle. Business requires communication and raising standards of living requires business.
The long history of China is a story of revolutions, two in the 20th century alone. Whether there will be another one in this century depends on how Chinese leaders manage the transition to a modern society without oppressing an increasingly optimistic, expectant and connected population, a daunting balancing act that will require much effort.
North Korea, on the other hand, is getting downright scary - especially if you live on the west coast.
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